While following sports in Cincinnati hasn’t caused the fans to sink  to the abyss of frustration and grief that is all-too familiar to Cub Fan, it hasn’t exactly been a day at the beach.  I won’t deliberate on the Bengals, other than to say that you had to have spent years following a team owned and run by Mike Brown to truly appreciate the difficulty of remaining enthused about and loyal to this team.  It was better this season with the team having reached the playoffs, but the agony of the final two games against the Jets picked open the scab once again.  Hey, it’s not like Cincy Fan is monumentally tortured.  If you would like to peruse a litany of sports pain and angst, check out the article from Bill Simmons (one of my favorite sports columnists) at ESPN.com.   It’s a great piece.

The Reds have been a downer in a much different way.  They have just flat out been not very good, and most fans knew from very early on in each season that they were not going to go very far.  The last time the club sniffed the playoffs was in 1994, when they were swept by the Braves in the NLCS.

Greg Vaughn led the last very good Reds' team in 1999

The Greg Vaughn-led 1999 team was stellar in winning 95 games, but lost a heartbreaker to the Mets in a one-game match to get into the playoffs.  For the decade that just concluded, the team’s average record for each year is 75-87, with the best year being the 2000 team that went 85-77 to finish second in the division.

And it’s not like they have been the worst team of the decade . . . far from it.  Here are the average records of the decade’s bottom-feeders:

• Kansas City:  67-95
• Pittsburgh:  68-94
• Baltimore: 70-92
• Washington/Montreal:  71-91

Even San Diego had a very similar average record to the Reds of 77-85, despite two playoff  appearances (resulting in two first-round exits).   I am not scribbling here to slam the team or ring the death knell for 2010, but to offer hope.

Hope . . .

Jean Kerr wrote:

Hope is the feeling that the feeling you have isn’t permanent.

Let’s start there, shall we?

The Cincinnati Reds had the 19th highest payroll in MLB in 2009, with salaries totaling in the neighborhood of $73.5 million.  Not bad.  Consider that there are five teams that spent considerably more that might not have as good a team going into the season as the Reds.  Take the Mets, for example.  They had the second-highest payroll at $149 million.  Hey, they might get it together, but if I had to put some dollars down on which team will have the better season, I’m taking the Reds.  There are other teams with higher payrolls that I might not rank ahead of the Reds going in:  Houston, San Francisco, Cleveland, and perhaps even Toronto.

I’m just sayin’ . . .

So what would it take for the Reds to be a playoff team?  Let’s take an oversimplified approach.   Forget about comparing them to the Yankees and their team of freaks.  The four teams that made it to the NL playoffs last season – Phillies, Rockies, Dodgers, and Cardinals – averaged 783 runs scored in 2009 (4.8 per game).  They allowed an average of 668 runs (4.1 per game).  All four teams were in the top eight in the league in fielding percentage.  The Reds were ranked 6th.

In 2009, the Reds scored 673 runs (4.15 per game).  Based on the “standard” of the playoff teams, they would need to bump up the scoring by roughly 100 runs in 2010.  Sure, increasing your offensive output by 15% from one year to the next is a daunting task when you’re not signing Mark Teixeira (or two or three of him, for that matter).

Bruce must rake for the Reds to shake.

It can be done.  Unfortunately, when you are not the Yankees or Red Sox, you can’t replace a stud’s performance during the season.  Everything has to go right.  Here are the top six things that will need to happen for the Reds to plate 750+ runs:

• Jay Bruce has to step up.  Big time.  I won’t get into a lot of detail on his game (as I intend to do in a future post), but his OPS (on-base + slugging percentage) in the minors was .917.  In 758 Major League ABs, it’s .769.  That won’t get it.   Don’t let the 22 home runs from last season fool you.  He was awful.
• Get Jonny Gomes signed and platoon him in left field.  He was fourth on the team in RBIs in ’09 with 51 in just 281 at-bats.  He won’t do anything against right-handed pitching, and his fielding ability is best described as “wretched.”  They have offered him a minor league deal, so we’ll see.
• Sign a shortstop who will give them more offense than Paul Janish.  The team signed Orlando Cabrera .  Check!
• Dusty Baker needs to keep Willy Taveras out of the leadoff spot all season.  It seems rather obvious, but wait until the first time that Drew Stubbs slumps.  Gomes against lefties would be a better choice.  Go here for further analysis (and rant).
• Votto must put up the numbers at the rate of last year, but over 600 ABs.  This would equate to 32 HR and 109 RBIs.  Nice.
• The Reds must get 25+ home runs from the third base position.  In 2009, they got 57 runs scored, 12 HR, and 43 RBIs from the sum of Scott Rolen, Adam Rosales, and Edwin Encarnacion.  If that wasn’t the worst production in baseball from that position, I feel for the team that was lower.

Modest goals, don’t you think?  Like I said, everything has to flow.  But it could happen.

The runs-allowed average of 668 runs from the playoff teams is a little closer to the Reds number of 723.  The Reds ranked eighth in the NL, which is respectable.  Like any other team, the bullpen needs to produce, but here is what they will need from the starters:

• Homer Bailey steps up.  Bailey, who finally showed promise last September with a 2.08 ERA in five starts, needs to produce the numbers that a healthy Edinson Volquez would do. (Volquez is out until at least August following shoulder surgery).  The Reds have been extremely patient with Homer, and maybe now it will pay off.
• Harang reverts to 2007 form.  Aaron Harang was 12-31 in the past two years.  12-31!  You could make a case that Dusty has had a hand in this prolific decline, but that’s for another time.  I’m going to have faith that the big fella is healthy and ready to have a solid season.
• Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto give them at least what they did last season, which is almost 400 innings, 26 wins, and a sub-1.30 WHIP.  Anything beyond that is gravy.

It truly is within the realm of reasonable that  Cincinnati could make a playoff run this season.  I have confidence in Walt Jocketty to make sound baseball decisions.  It could happen.  After all , you gotta have hope!

On the other hand, I have another quote for you:

Hope is the worst of evils, for it prolongs the torment of man.

- Freidrich Nietsche

Funny, I never would have tagged Nietsche as a fan (must have been the Berlin Bombers).