. . .  Leading off for your 2010 Cincinnati Reds! . . .

Please, Dusty. Not Willy.

Seriously.

After posting an on-base percentage of .275 in his first year with the Reds, with most of those ABs coming as the leadoff man, can we make a presumption that Willy Taveras will not be manning the top lineup spot on Opening Day?  Bear in mind that Willy’s predecessor in 2008 was Corey Patterson, he whose OBP was always struggling to hit the .300 mark.

To offer perspective on what a leadoff hitter should be producing, I have listed the primary leadoff hitters from 2009, ranked by OBP (*denotes career avg.):

Generally, the acceptable level of reaching base in terms of OBP is .350.  If you are below this mark, you need to have other skills in the tool box that justify to the manager that you are the right man for the slot.  For example, Curtis Granderson and Nate McLouth have a somewhat below-average OBP, but they hit for power and are always a stolen base threat (it should be noted that Granderson is awful against lefthanded pitching, and probably won’t be leading off for the Yankees against the southpaws).  Jimmy Rollins had a horrible year in this respect at .296, and his career OBP is a still-paltry .329.  It works in the Phillies lineup because of the strong offensive production throughout their lineup.

Taveras is a different animal altogether in The Reds’ lineup.  In fairness to Willy, his career OBP is .321, and he does steal bases at a clip of 80% to his attempts (a good rate).   Dusty Baker loves speed at the top of the lineup, but we must remember one of the Ten (or so) Commandments of Base Ball:

You Cannot Steal First Base.

It’s not like the Reds have an array of candidates for this slot, but Drew Stubbs offers the best option.  Stubbs is a 6’4″, 205 lb. outfielder out of Texas that has above-average speed.  Since his MLB debut in ’09 was limited to 180 at-bats, we’ll take a look at his minor league body of work.

In 1,588 minor league at-bats, Stubbs had a .269 BA and a respectable .364 OBP.  He stole 121 bases, which translates to one stolen base every 13.1 ABs (Taveras’ MLB career rate is 12.2).  His good size has not translated into power, as he hit a home run every 56.7 ABs.  He did hit 8 HR in his 180 ABs with the Reds.  While that pace (22.5 AB/HR) isn’t likely to be sustained, it does bode well for better power numbers.  Some players benefit from the MLB pitching always being much consistently closer to the plate than what they see in the minors (and playing at GABP doesn’t hurt either).  In terms of skill set, Stubbs reminds me of Corey Hart, the tall, speedy outfielder with the Brewers . . . he has plus speed, plus glove, and potential to hit 15-20 jacks.

Stubbs had 38 games in the leadoff hole last season, and at this time Taveras is behind Drew on the depth chart in CF.  He pretty much holds the spot going into camp.

Hope springs eternal.