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2010 MLB Trade Deadline Talk: The Cincinnati Reds

July 5th, 2010 at 12:17 pm

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The 2010 Major League Baseball trade deadline is just under a month away with the deadline being its customary date of July 31st on a yearly basis.

Over the next month I will try and tackle every Major League team as the deadline approaches to see if they will be buyers, sellers or stick to their current roster.

I will be basing my assumptions on the direction the team is going, their record as of the date I post the article, possible roster injuries and so on and so forth.

I will provide the information about each team by division.

I began with the National League East’s Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Florida Marlins & Washington Nationals.

Today I will move on to the NL Central leading Cincinnati Reds.

Coming into play today against the New York Mets the Reds are one of the biggest surprises in baseball leading the NL Central division with a record of 47-36.

The Reds, always a popular “sleeper” pick to win the division, have been a force to be reckoned with offensively and have established themselves as the team to beat as the All-Star break approaches in the NL Central.

The combination of an offensive attack consisting of promising youngsters Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips & Drew Stubbs mixed with veterans such as Scott Rolen, Orlando Cabrera, Ramon Hernandez & the surprising Jonny Gomes have teams talking about the scoring punch of the Reds under manager Dusty Baker.

The Reds have always had a concern from the starting pitching end despite having veterans Aaron Harang & Bronson Arroyo heading the pack, but this year has been a different story for the squad. Harang is not pitching very well boasting a record of 6-7 with an earned run average of 5.02, allowing more than a hit an inning, but Arroyo has pitched well with a record of 8-4 with an ERA of 4.25.

Arroyo is allowing less than a hit per inning and keeping the opponents batting average low (.238).

Add in the impressive rookie season thus far from Mike Leake (6-1, 3.38ERA), the powerful arm of Johnny Cueto (8-2, 3.56ERA) and soon to be returning former All-Star Edinson Volquez, who struck out seven in his latest Triple A rehab start on June 29th and the Reds will yield a formidable starting rotation that could push them to the playoffs along with their excellent offense.

The team also yields one of the best closers in baseball over the last seven seasons in Francisco Cordero, who has 272 career saves and has struck out more than a batter per inning over his twelve year career.

Aside from Cordero at the back end the bullpen currently consists of lefties Bill Bray (0-0, 6.00ERA) & recent All-Star selection Arthur Rhodes (3-2, 1.09ERA) as well as starter turned reliever Micah Owings (3-2, 4.41ERA), Nick Masset (3-3, 5.35ERA), the towering Logan Ondrusek (0-0, 5.06ERA) & youngster Jordan Smith (1-1, 3.86ERA).

The bench consists of back up catcher Corky Miller (.216, 1HR, 4RBI), defense minded utility infielder Paul Janish (.280, 2HR, 9RBI), veteran super utility player Miguel Cairo (.278, 2HR, 10RBI) & outfielders Chris Heisey (.271, 4HR, 6RBI) and Laynce Nix (.240, 4HR, 12RBI).

Rolen, who was just named to his sixth All-Star team, is having his best year since 2006, hitting .302 with 17HR & 56RBI coming into today, while Votto is an on-base machine, having reached base in 41 consecutive games and currently sits second in the NL behind only Albert Pujols in on-base percentage at .414. He also leads the NL in on-base/slugging percentage with .988.

Votto is hitting .312 with 19HR & 57RBI as well which makes fans all over baseball wonder why he was not an automatic All-Star selection. Votto is currently one of five NL players who are eligible to be voted into the game by fans.

With the team being led by Rolen & Votto as well as receiving nice production from Gomes, Phillips, Bruce & Stubbs inside a hitter friendly Great American Ball Park the Reds certainly seem like a legit threat to dethrone the St.Louis Cardinals as division champions in the NL Central, if their starting pitching can hold up for the entire season and if the bullpen can become more consistant.

As the July 31st trade deadline approaches teams all across baseball look to improve and the only thing that the Reds may need to do is look for some more reliability out of their bullpen.

The team already possesses a formidable starting five with the return of Volquez and their bullpen should also improve with the return of the injured Homer Bailey (who I assume will be sent to the bullpen despite being a regular starter), but I do not see a bullpen that could be as reliable as they might need to be down the stretch or in the playoffs.

The Reds perhaps could pick up a veteran shut down right hander, maybe of the power variety. Someone like the San Diego Padres Heath Bell would be idle, although that acquisition would be pricey.

Another idea would be the promotion of super prospect Aroldis Chapman to pitch out of the bullpen, similar to the way the Tampa Bay Rays used David Price on their way to the World Series in 2008. Chapman is a lefty, but has the high octane stuff to shutdown anyone coming out of the Reds bullpen.

The Reds are poised to make a nice run at the division title as well as the playoffs if everything remains the way it is and I personally do not think the team needs to do much at the trade deadline except fortify its bullpen if the right deal comes up, but the team could avoid making a deal and promote Chapman and see how that turns out instead.

The Reds are serious, boast one of the best offenses in baseball, play in a park that is built for their style of play, have veteran leadership and finally are receiving decent pitching. This could be the year the Reds make their return to the playoffs in the NL.

I have this feeling a deal is doubtful, the trade deadline will be a boring day for the Reds organization and the team will continue to be an exciting one to keep your eye on as the season progresses with their current on-field product, unless something drastic happens.

Let’s wait and see how July goes and if the team will need to make a deal come the trade deadline to fortify an already formidable squad in the NL Central.

Do not forget to follow me on Twitter @BryanMcwilliam or join my facebook group

Comments
  • Rsendelbach

    Bryan, well done. A couple of notes -- Votto's streak was cut to 41 games yesterday afternoon when he was tossed for arguing balls and strikes in the top of the first. (Understandable, after being trounced in the All-star selections -- still no excuse to throw a helmet though, Joey)

    While the starting rotation will soon be strong, they are injury prone. I think the most likely pickup would be something involving a starting ace - somebody they would feel confident facing Gallardo, Wainwright, or Halladay in the playoffs.

    How about a Cliff Lee, Dan Harren, or Roy Oswalt? (Or, if going for a bat, how about Berkmann - he's already used to taking BP from Reds pitching)

  • bryan2818

    Hi Rsendelbach.

    I based the 45 game streak on a report via Sam Cosentino from Rogers Sportsnet here in Toronto, who reported it during a live Blue Jays broadcast yesterday afternoon. Thanks for the head's up.

    I agree with you about the starting rotation as far as being injury prone. Volquez has already gone down, Bailey went down and Leake might have a hard time lasting a whole season.

    As far as the trade scenarios you laid out I just don't see the Reds having the necessary fire power required to acquire a Lee, Haren or the budget to acquire Oswalt (who has a ton of cash left on his contract) when teams such as the Cardinals, Yankees, Mets, etc have already been scouting the pitchers and have an obvious advantage in any trade scenario (the Mets not so much from a farm system perspective but they still have a big budget).

    But I also never expected the Reds to land Chapman and they surprised everyone with that move so anything could happen, especially with the team in playoff contention.

    Thanks for reading!

  • davidjacob

    Hey Bryan, I hate to be a nitpicker, but I wish Arroyo has only given up 2 HRs. He gave up four HRs to Indians Choo in just two games (and all on different pitches, according to Arroyo; he's given up 12 total, according to espn).

    As for trading, I will also be shocked if the Reds make any noise before the deadline. The Reds are pretty solid from top to bottom. John Fay did report that the Reds talked to Seattle about Cliff Lee, and we do have a guy that they want who can hit (Yonder Alonso in AAA), but I will be fairly surprised. But Walt Jocketty is a guy known to make things happen. We'll see.

  • bryan2818

    Hi David.

    Arroyo has given up 12.

    I actually was revising that as I noted the error as well but you posted first.

    I do believe I made an error when analyzing stats and might have looked at his hit batsman stats, never the less, it is no longer in the article as the stat was incorrect.

    Alonso is definetely a big trade chip the Reds have as Votto is blocking him at first and I think Alonso could be a good hitter at the Major League level, but I really don't see a Lee trade happening for them.

    You never know what Jocketty could come up with, but I think if they add anything a bullpen piece might be it.

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