Deals in the Air?

As Friday night’s games heat up, the Cincinnati Reds sit one game behind the Cardinals in the NL Central, with trade talks heating up that longtime Houston Astros ace Roy Oswalt might be heading to St. Louis.  The Reds are facing a critical six-game stretch beginning tonight.  The club is 4-3 since the All-Star break, but the starting pitchers have allowed 13 runs in 8 innings (after surrendering just seven runs in the prior 30 IP).  The six games are against two teams that they need to handle – Houston and Milwaukee.

The Reds miss Scott Rolen.  Not only has Rolen been having his best career year since 2004 (when he had 34 HR

and 124 RBIs), but he has provided invaluable leadership on a team that had been sorely lacking in that area.  He has a .274 BA and .945 OPS with runners in scoring position. Miguel Cairo is a fine utility player, but he failed to execute two plays in the Washington series, each of which resulted in two runs scoring.  You can’t absolutely say that Rolen would have made the plays, but . . . Rolen would have made the plays.  Between Rolen’s injury history and Orlando Cabrera’s inconsistency at the plate, perhaps the Reds should take a look at Miguel Tejada of the Orioles as an acquisition target.

Speaking of trade targets . . . I wrote a piece a couple weeks ago that the Reds should make a run at Chicago’s Ted Lilly.  He is a very good pitcher having a down year, and he could provide the team a solid lefthanded veteran in the rotation.

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A Huge Weekend for the Home Team

Friday, July 23: Travis Wood (0-1, 2.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs. Bud Norris (2-7, 6.09 ERA, 1.65 WHIP).

No one on the Astros has faced Wood.  He has thrown allowed one run in his last 15 innings, and has gone 0-1 in that stretch.  Of course, the game that he lost was when he took a perfect game into the eighth inning against Roy Halladay.  Norris, needless to say, is having a rough time of it this season.  No one on the Reds has more than five at-bats against him.  The one thing that concerns me about Norris is that, despite his poor numbers, he has a 1.07 K/IP rate.  This could be a problem for the strikeout-prone Reds’ hitters.

Saturday, July 24: Johnny Cueto (9-2, 3.39 ERA) vs. Roy Oswalt (6-11, 3.12ERA)

Any Reds fan can tell you what a nightmare Roy Oswalt has been for the team – a 23-2 lifetime record with a 2.62 ERA.   On the positive side, that second defeat against the Reds came earlier this season.  It’s not like no one can hit him . . . some of the boys have good numbers:  The starting lineup has a respectable .275 BA in 149 at-bats versus Roy O.  Joey Votto is 8 for 27 with 1 HR.  Look for Laynce Nix to be in the lineup in this game, as he is hitting a lusty 7-15 with 2 HR against the righthander.  Lance Berkman has five hits and 2 HR in 13 ABs against Cueto, but that’s not the problem.  Berkman (as you probably know) has been a Reds-killer his entire career.  He has 514 ABs against the Reds, so let’s go ahead and call that one full season.  Here are his numbers:  49 HR, 137 RBIs, .323 BA, and a 1.133 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage – the league avg. is .735).  To the Reds’ credit, they have held him to four hits in 19 ABs this season.

Sunday, July 25:  Mike Leake (7-1, 3.45 ERA) vs. Wandy Rodriguez (7-11, 5.11 ERA)

The Reds’ fine rookie has pitched 13 innings against Houston and has surrendered but one run.  One player that is certain to be in the starting lineup is Jeff Keppinger, who has four hits in five ABs against him.  WandyRod has a 6-7 record with a 4.52 ERA against the Redlegs.  You might look for Chris Heisey to be in right field against the ‘Stros lefty, as Jay Bruce is 1 for 17 lifetime against him.  On the other hand, Jonny Gomes is 6 for 13 with a dinger lifetime.

With these two opponents on the docket, Cincinnati really needs to take 4 of 6 by the time that return to GABP to face the first-place Braves next week.