Mike looks forward to being a fixture in the Reds rotation.

Leake probably won’t be a part of the big club’s plans until at least 2011.  Granted, he has the experience of playing top-level college ball with arguably the top program in the country.  But his professional “resume” is playing in the 2009 Arizona Fall League (where he was named a Rising Star after compiling a 1.37 ERA in 19.7 innings, with 15 strikeouts), and in pitching three scoreless innings for the Reds in Spring Training thus far.  Hopefully he can get 300 or so innings under his belt at Double and/or Triple A before he has to think about trying to get Major League hitters out.

The Cincinnati Reds have a rich tradition throughout their history, but you would be hard-pressed to find a time when the club had a more ample supply of young talent in terms of starting pitching . . . Cueto, Volquez, Chapman, Maloney (Matt, not Jim . . . not even Jim’s boy), and 22-year old Mike Leake.

It’s a good time again to be a Reds fan!

Alright, it’s easy to be a giddy fan. Especially if you sign a 22-year-old Cuban phenom who pitches over 100 mph. This is Aroldis Chapman, who pitched two innings of shut-out baseball for his Spring debut. One of the scouts clocked his fastball at 102 mph. This is just amazing. There aren’t that many starting pitchers out there who can top 100 miles an hour. Really, there aren’t. And one of the main knocks on Chapman before the Reds signed him is that he doesn’t have great command.

So far in camp, all he has shown is command. Okay, he did hit Todd Frazier in the knee, but this kid has thrown roughly two thirds of his pitches for strikes. Joe Posnanski of Sports Illustrated compared Chapman’s effort in throwing to someone who’s “skipping a rock” across a lake. But Chapman isn’t just throwing heat. Posnanski said that Chapman struck out Rick Ankiel with a slider that he missed by so much that “he had to be rebooked on a later flight” (kind of a cheesy comparison, but I’ve written much worse).

Marty Brennaman, who has been following baseball for 37 years, says Chapman is the best pitching prospect he has ever seen.

And it seems like everyone who’s not in the Reds club house wants Chapman to start in the minors.
I understand being cautious with a guy who’s so young, but… WHY?!

I feel like I’m Ferris Bueller after Cameron told him that they weren’t having any fun that day. Ferris looks imploringly at the camera and into the audience, as if to say, “Can you believe what he just said? Didn’t you just see all the cool stuff we’ve done?”  That’s exactly how I feel with Chapman. We’ve got all this hard evidence of him being just shy of un-freakin-believable.  I’m looking in the camera right now and asking the rest of the world, “Didn’t you just see him throw the freakin’ ball?”

It amazes me that much of the logic behind the “Let’s start him in the minors” is that he hasn’t faced real Major League hitting yet. Um… Hello? Did you not read his bio? Like, um, HE PITCHED FOR THE CUBAN NATIONAL TEAM. HE HAS FACED THE BEST HITTERS IN THE WORLD UNDER HUGE PRESSURE SITUATIONS IN THE BASEBALL WORLD CUP. HE PITCHED IN COMMUNIST CUBA WHERE HE WAS MAKING THE SAME AMOUNT OF MONEY AS THE JANITOR WHO CLEANED HIS STADIUM IF IT WAS ACTUALLY CLEANED. IF HE DIDN’T PITCH AND PITCH WELL, HIS FAMILY WOULD GO HUNGRY.

*Few!* Sorry for all those caps. But seriously, to say that Chapman needs to face “better hitters” is like saying Obama needs to face “tougher opposition” to passing the health care bill.

Yes, I know he’s young, but, good lord, when do you stop saying “he’s young” and realize that this kid can flat out pitch.

Ah, but here’s another movie reference for everyone: Yoda, “Hm, two innings a pitcher does not make, hm.”
Okay, I’ll agree that it’s a little bit too soon to say he’s the Cuban Randy Johnson after Chapman’s pitched in exactly two Spring innings. On the other hand, please raise your hand if you are a candidate to pitch for the fifth spot of the Reds and can throw over 100 miles an hour. Hello? Bueller? Buuueller? (Is he absent today?)
And one more thing, Chapman didn’t have access to tape in Cuba (along with many other things, like, oh, free speech, a normal economy (relatively speaking), a non-militaristic government, uncensored Internet (that would suck the most, I would say), and just a bunch of other crap. Seriously, I would think living in Cuba would just suck beyond sucking. In my humble opinion. Go America). So now Chapman can study his own fluid, supple body movements (that sounded weirdly sexual, but that’s not what I was aiming for) and see what he needs to improve on. He can fix whatever “erratic” problems he had.

I guess I’m joining the giddy fan bandwagon here, but, seriously, start Chapman’s ass in the majors. Thanks.

In today’s Cincinnati Enquirer (which you can’t apparently get on the web until tomorrow… last ditch effort for the print media), Reds beat reporter John Fay wrote an article about how Brandon Phillips snubbed him for an interview a few days ago.

According to Fay, this is how the exchange went: Fay asked for an interview, Phillips said “Nope,” and then five minutes later Phillips comes back and said, “I’ve been here a week and now you’re gonna try to talk to me?” Fay then proceeds to write about Phillips’ maturity issues with the Reds.

Okay, so this wasn’t the most mature reaction on the planet. I completely understand it. I would agree that Phillips needs to get over himself and realize that even though he is ONE of the best players on the Reds, he’s not THE star. And Fay did make a case to show that Phillips has proven himself, on occasion, to be a little stubborn and/or a slacker: ignoring a take sign on a 3-0 pitch, failing to run out a fly ball, and saying he had a hairline fracture on his wrist when it was just a bruise.

Yes, Phillips isn’t perfect. Believe it or not, he’s a human being. Those previous examples demonstrate that he is not the “perfect” player, but Phillips has done so much else as a player on and off the field that I’m wondering why Fay needed to put more salt in old wounds. He is very personable with the fans, and 99 percent of the time he’s on the field, he’s going full force. He can be a spectacular fielder. He’s a very consistent hitter. And, yeah, he might have some emotions.

I can understand being mad at being snubbed for an interview. I would have also been like, WTF, but then I’d give over it. This interview was not going to change the world. Fay probably wasn’t going to get a Pulitzer for it.  Phillips wasn’t refusing aid to a hungry Chilean or Haitian. It was an interview for the sports section of a newspaper with a small circulation.  In no way is Phillips another Manny Ramirez or Milton Bradley.

Big deal, John Fay. Like, OMG, I think Phillips said that Jay Bruce said that Joey Votto’s little 12 year old brother stuck his tongue at you behind your back. Are you going to write about how this clearly shows that Votto is a poor leader because his brother is out of control?

I mean, Fay wrote about his reasoning about choosing to write about Votto, Bruce, and Scott Rolen before he wrote about Phillips.  All of them seemingly good, newsworthy reasons. Good for you, Fay! Thanks for letting me know your reasoning! And how is that news? Oh, the news here is that you’re mad at Phillips and you think he gave you the stink eye, too, right?

Phillips wasn’t necessarily in the right to refuse the interview (assuming that there is a “right” or “wrong” to grant interviews), but Fay sure as hell shouldn’t have written about it. It just sounds so petty and whiney. If Phillips wasn’t talking, couldn’t you have, like, um, talk to other people about Phillips? Dusty Baker, maybe? (who was quoted in the story) Other coaches?

Yeah, Phillips probably could’ve given you an interview. Yeah, he could work on his maturity. Yeah, it’s kind of a human interest story and I’m sure that’s why it went on the front page of the Sunday sports section. But this story meant nothing to me. I was really angry at Fay when I read the story.

Here’s your hanky, John Fay.

Blow in it while a real writer like Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News would’ve laughed it off and wrote a real story about Phillips’ contribution as a player.

Jim Maloney was a 6′2″, 195 lb. righty out of Fresno, California that was signed by the Reds in the 1959 amateur draft.  He was known for his ability to bring the heat, allegedly touching 100 mph on his fastball (bearing in mind that radar guns were not around at that time).  He debuted with the club in the summer of 1960, and had a record of 134-81 in his 11-year career in Cincy.  In his prime years of 1963-69, Jim Maloney was among the elite pitchers in the National League.

Jim Maloney was dominant for a 7-year stretch in the 60's.

During these seven years, he averaged 17 wins and 9 losses (and aside from the ‘61 NL Pennant winner, the Reds did not have great teams).  He had an ERA of 2.95 and a 1.19 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched).  He averaged 218 innings pitched per season as well as 196 strikeouts.  Were it not for the fact that he was plying his trade at the same time as the likes of Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, Don Drysdale, and Juan Marichal, he probably would have gotten a lot more notice than he did.

On June 14, 1965, Maloney had the NY Mets held to no runs and no hits through ten innings.  He went out to the mound in the 11th and surrendered a home run to Johnny Lewis to lose the game 1-0 (I remember listening to that game).  He did have two no-hitters for which he actually received credit.  On August 19th of the same year, he won a 1-0 decision, but had to no-hit the Cubs for ten innings before shortstop Leo Cardenas hit a solo shot in the top of the tenth inning.  He had 12 strikeouts in that game.  He also had 10 walks and a hit batsman (Ron Santo).  Needless to say, no one was digging in on the Reds’ ace on that afternoon.  Maloney had a second no-hitter in 1969 against the Astros, in which the team gave him a little run support in a 10-0 win.

Jim Maloney was traded to the California Angels after being injured for most of the 1970 season.  He had a series of arm miseries and was out of baseball by 1972 at the age of 31.  Who knows what he might have been able to accomplish with today’s medical advancements (Tommy John had not yet even had the surgery that would carry his name)?

Here’s hoping that Aaron Harang can put four or five great years up for the home team.

Homer hopes that '10 is his year to bust out.

By the time he debuted in 2007, he was anointed the top prospect in the Reds’ organization by Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America.  When he pitched in his first MLB game against Cleveland in the summer of 2007, he was the youngest player in the National League.  He is entering his fourth season in the big leagues, and as you are acutely aware, his bubble gum card numbers to this point are less than impressive.  He is 12-13 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 195 IP.  His strikeout rate has been an almost non-existent .44/IP.  He has put together a K/BB ratio of 1.65 (anything under a 2-to-1 rate is below par).

Here are two reasons to have hope.  The first is his last seven games of 2009.  He went 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA, .97 K/IP, and 2.21 K/BB.  Only a snapshot for sure, but he appeared to have found a nice rhythm for the longest stretch of his young  career.   The other reason is that his minor league peripherals indicate that he has the skill set to get major league hitters out . . . 534 strikeouts in 531 innings pitched (a fine 1.01 K/IP), a 3.61 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.  This is a 24-year old (come May) who is two years removed from what would have been his college graduation year.  These have been three frustrating seasons for Bailey, the Reds, and the fans.  The Reds have been extremely patient with young Homer, and they resisted giving up on him.

The Reds go into the season with Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez Homer Bailey in the top four spots in the rotation.  That’s right . . . the club hopes that Homer can replace the 14-15 wins that Volquez would have been slated for had he not gone on the shelf.  This has to be considered a crossroads year for him.  If he produces, he once again becomes a cornerstone of the Reds’ future.  If he does not progress, all involved parties could agree that a change in scenery might be in order.

We’re projecting a 13-11 season, with a 3.85 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.  This type of season would make for some optimistic fans.

Some ramblings while sitting in the dead of winter wishing I were in Goodyear . . .

There are enough takes floating around in attempts to compile evidence against Dusty Baker’s handling of his pitching staff that might make him feel like he is waiting for the doorbell to ring with his court summons.  I suppose this could be a good thing.  If there is anything that could prompt the man to think twice before letting Homer Bailey average 130 pitches from May-July, or before Aaron Harang is asked to (again) throw a few innings of relief in an extra-inning tilt, I say hurrah!  In my Harang ‘em and Bang ‘em post,  the evidence shows that the Reds’ de facto ace has not been the same since throwing four innings on 3-days rest in a double-digit inning game against the Padres in May, 2008.  Paul Daugherty documented quite a bit  (both for and against the plaintiff) in his The Morning Line blog.  Included in TML is a link to an article by Jeff Fletcher of MLB Fanhouse, an excellent read that includes testimony from former players that were allegedly “victimized” by Dusty’s overuse.  To a man, they defended their former manager.  There is also a reference to the PAP (Pitcher Abuse Points) formula created by the folks at Baseball Prospectus. You can draw your own conclusions.

***

Let’s go around the horn a bit . . .

It was reported by Jon Heyman of SI.com that Livan Hernandez has signed a minor league deal with the Washington Nationals that will pay him a base salary of $900,000 this season in the event that he makes the club (which he is fully expected to do).  He carries the age-old label of being an “innings eater.”  This does not necessarily mean that he is by definition a good pitcher (and while he is in the twilight of his career, he has put together a solid one).  This just means that, if rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg surrenders six runs in the first two innings, he will be lifted.  If Livan surrenders six in the first inning, he could still be in there in the seventh . . . well . . . eating innings.  We have spoken of the Heinous Start in this space (Heinous Start (HS): when a starting pitcher surrenders a minimum of one earned run for each completed inning pitched; minimum of three runs).  Livan is the King of the Heinous.  He has 30 of them in the past three years, which is first in MLB by a long shot (our boy Bronson Arroyo is second with 24, but at least Arroyo has posted 63 Quality Starts; Livan has but 49).  It is clear that the Nationals are trying to keep their prized kids from taking the bullets of the long innings.  There is no other team in MLB that could sign Hernandez and have it make sense, but it does here.  Livan will be there to serve and protect, and he should be an asset to the team.

Just don’t let him anywhere near your fantasy team.

***

I can’t help but wonder how Miguel Cabrera is doing this spring.  The Tiger slugger is one of the finest hitters in all of Base Ball, but he has always had questions floating about him regarding his work ethic.  It was the last week of the 2009 season before a critical game against the White Sox.  The Tigers had to win 2 out of 3 in the weekend series to take the division outright from the Twins.   He was apparently partying with some of his White Sox buddies until 6 AM on a game day.  His wife ended up calling the police, and Cabrera took a breathalizer test and registered a stout .26 BAC.  GM Dave Dombrowski picked him up a couple hours later after he was released.  You can read the account here from SB Nation.

Cabrera went 0 for 11 in the weekend series.

It was reported in January by MLive.com that Cabrera underwent three months of rehab over the winter.  This article is uplifting.  We have all heard the stories of the young sports stars who get too rich too quickly and hurl themselves down a self-destructive path.  Hopefully, Miguel has turned it around.  It appears that so far, things are going well.   Consider this . . . He has now “cleared his head” and should theoretically be ready to rake in 2010.  But it’s not like he has slacked his way through his first seven MLB seasons.  He has 209 home runs, 753 RBIs, a lifetime .311 batting average and .942 OPS (on base plus slugging percentage).

Oh, by the way . . . Dude is just 25 years old.

I can’t help but wonder if this marvelous talent is disturbing his inner qwan by “clearing his head”. . . It reminds me of one of my favorite  lines in Bull Durham from Crash Davis to Nuke LaLoosh:

Don’t think, Meat.  It hurts the ballclub.

As was reported by John Fay of the Enquirer this morning, Jonny Gomes has signed a Major League one-year deal with the Reds with an option for 2011.  This was a deal that, while it was a long time coming, it appeared that the player, the team, and the fans all believed that he would end up back with the Reds.  Even with the plethora of candidates hopeful of  plying their trade patrolling GABP’s left field this year, Gomes adds a positive dynamic to the picture.  Not only did he hit 20 jacks in just 281 ABs last season, but if you consider Laynce Nix as a possible platoon partner , the two players combined for 35 HR and 97 RBIs in 2009.  Here are a couple snapshots from Gomes’ ‘09 season:

• Granted, he hit lefties better than righties.  He batted .307 with a .914 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) vs. LHP, and just .244 but with a respectable .859 OPS against RHP.  Interestingly, he hit a home run against a lefty every 20.1 ABs, but his 15 homers against right-handed pitching came once every 12 at-bats.
• In 121 ABs in games that the Reds won, he hit .331 with a lofty 1.057 OPS.  In 160 at-bats in Reds losses, he hit .219 with a paltry .744 OPS.  It could mean that he helped vault the Reds to victory.  It could also mean that he feasts on mediocre pitching, while the better pitchers manage to find the holes in his swing.
• Jonny is not a good outfielder, but you already knew that.  And after years of Adam Dunn roller-skating throughout left-field for the team, we’re accustomed to sacrificing more than a little defense.

The great Sparky Anderson once said, “If you put bench players on the field long enough, they will show you why they are bench players.”  Gomes is not a guy that should be out there every day (He has not amassed more than 410 plate appearances in any of his seven MLB seasons).  But if Dusty can hit the right match ups, another 20/50 season should be well within the realm of possibility.

He also brought some baggage.  He has been known for having an affinity of putting “speed at the top” of the lineup, regardless of whether said speedsters have the ability to reach first base often enough to be a benefit to the ball club (before there were Corey and Willy with the Reds, there was Juan Pierre (Cubs), Neifi Perez, Calvin Murray (both with the Giants), and Corey I (with the Cubs).  He has  a notorious rep for mishandling pitchers, especially his starters.  Those pointing the finger often refer to the ruination of Mark Pryor and (to a lesser extent) Kerry Wood.  In fairness, there is little evidence that Baker misused Edinson Volquez to the point of Tommy John surgery, or that he wore out Johnny Cueto last season.  You could make a better case that the culprit was their anchoring the Dominican pitching staff in the World Baseball Classic last March.  With all that in mind, I submit

Exhibit A:  The pitcher is Aaron Harang.  The date – May 25, 2008.

Harang is entering his ninth MLB season, his eighth with Cincinnati.  His career to this point can be divided into three “chapters” (all stats are sourced from baseball-reference.com):

The Wonder Years (2002-05):  Harang had the typical problems of  young pitchers trying to figure out how to get big league hitters out, while showing the promise of a highly-touted prospect.  His body of work:  31-32, 4.51 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 2.35 K/BB, and a respectable K/IP ratio of .75.

The Studly Years (2006-07):  During these two seasons, Aaron Harang was as effective as pretty much any pitcher in baseball not named Johan.  On a team that had an average W/L record of 76-86, the 6′7″ right-hander was 32-17, with a 3.75 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  He averaged 233 innings and 217 strikeouts.  His 4.02 K/BB was the best in the NL with pitchers averaging more than 150 IP.  He was establishing himself as a top five MLB hurler.

The Reds hope they get to break out the campaign posters for Aaron this season.

The Loser Years (2008-09):  12-31, 4.52 ERA, 1.39 WHIP.  Every Reds fan has an acute awareness of how ugly Harang’s pitching was during this period.  But let’s break it down . . . From Opening Day through May 24th, Harang had 2 wins and 6 losses, but he was victimized by non-support.  His ERA of 3.50 and WHIP of 1.22 belied the record.

Back to Exhibit A . . .

On May 25, the Reds were hooked up in an extra inning battle with the Padres that they ended up losing in 18 innings by a score of 12-9.  Harang was called upon to pitch (on three days rest)  and threw four scoreless innings with nine strikeouts.  He was back on the bump on the 29th (again on three days’ rest), and got shelled by the Pirates, allowing 10 hits and 6 earnies in 4 IP.

He ended up going 4-11 after that extra inning tilt, ending the season with a 4.78 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.  He was never the same after that game, and went on the DL with a right forearm strain in July.  His 2009 season ended prematurely (mercifully?) due to an emergency appendectomy, but he never had his game on the entire season.  It’s more than a stretch that state that Dusty’s mis-steps in mid-2008 carried over through the ‘09 campaign.  But there is no question that, since that four-day stretch in May, he hasn’t been the same.

I’m just sayin’  . . .

Aaron Harang can still throw the ball hard, and he is a power pitcher who knows how to pitch.  He is supposed to be 100% this spring.  Let’s hope he finds his mojo again.

We need him.

And we miss you, Big Fella.

Back in the day, a starting pitcher’s worth was measured by two primary factors: 1) If he could go the distance, and 2) If he could win.  It is common knowledge that with the evolution of the closer, the “TLC” that is afforded starters, and the expanded bullpens, today’s game is very, very different in terms of measuring a pitcher’s value to a ballclub.  In 1968, pitching was so dominant (led by the great Bob Gibson’s 1.12 ERA) that MLB was prompted to lower the height of the mound in 1969 from 15 inches to the present-day 10.

Dominant among pitchers when pitchers were dominant.

There were 893 complete games that year.  Bear in mind that there were only 20 teams at the time.  This amounted to an average of 45 per team, or 29% of games started.  In 2009, there were 146 complete games, an average of about 5 per each of the 30 MLB teams.

The Quality Start is a stat that was invented by Philadelphia Inquirer sportswriter John Lowe in 1985 (a common myth is that it was invented by an an agent trying to get his client a win in arbitration).  A pitcher is credited with a QS when he pitches a minimum of six innings and allows three or fewer earned runs.  While surrendering three runs in six innings is not going to wow anyone, it will keep your team in the game (unless your team is the Giants, of course).  I invented a stat about three years ago to help my research for my fantasy baseball team.  It’s sort of the ant-QS, but I like to call it the Heinous Start.  It is defined as such:

Heinous Start (HS):  When a starting pitcher surrenders a minimum of one earned run for each completed inning pitched (minimum of three runs).

For example, Joe Bones is a starter for the Braves.  He comes in and gets hit with six runs in the first inning and is lifted.  That is a Heinous Start (actually, an effort of that nature could be referred to as an Egregious Start, but we shall stay focused).  If Bones were to settle down and last seven innings in giving up the six runs, the fans might not be happy with him, but his outing no longer qualifies as heinous.  Here is my theory:  You have some pitchers that keep their team in pretty much every game.  Any competent hurlers will have games when he just doesn’t have his good stuff.  Some are regularly able to grind through it and keep their team close.  Others get lit up like a Christmas tree,  and Arroyo is one of those guys.

Arroyo was nails down the stretch.

The tall righty from Key West had 23 Quality starts last season (which was the 10th highest total in MLB), but he also had 8 Heinous Starts (which was 8th highest in MLB).  He started 33 games, meaning all but two of his games pitched were either very good or very bad.  He had some company, though.  Felix Hernandez of the Mariners (and the AL Cy Young runnerup) hit the 100% mark – 34 games started, 29 QS, 5 HS.

Bronson’s bad starts were indeed brutal.  In these eight games, he threw 36.3 innings, and surrendered  50 earnies, for a “robust” ERA of 12.40.  As you would expect, the Reds lost all of the games.  All of the blowups occurred within a 17-start span between April 25 and July 22.  So as awful as he was during this stretch, from that point on he was outstanding.

In fact, in his other 25 starts, Arroyo pitched 184 innings and allowed 44 earned runs (fewer than what he gave up in the eight clunkers) for a 2.15 ERA.  Bronson was nearly unhittable after August 1 . . . 89.7 IP, 19 ER, 1.91 ERA, and a .95 WHIP!  Dan Haren of the Dbacks led all starters for the season with a WHIP of 1.00.

When Bronson Arroyo cannot locate his curve, he is going to get raked.  And since he has had exactly 24 HS in the past three years, we can pretty much lock him for 8 or so more in 2010.  The bottom line is that this guy is a solid Major League pitcher.  His success relies on his guile and ability to locate.  He has averaged 200+ innings pitched in the past six seasons, and there are only a handful of  pitchers that can make that claim.  Guys that can be counted on for 200 are money to any manager.  If he doesn’t have his ‘A’ game though, it could get ugly.

I have to say . . . He’s a lot better than I thought he was before I started diving into the numbers.

Will Juan help the Reds in '10?

Juan Francisco was the MVP of the Dominican Winter League, hitting .302 with 11 home runs in just 182 at-bats.  He also drove in 42 runners and had a nifty OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) of .918.  He was also the starting third baseman for the DR, and went 5 for 18 with a home run and 5 RBIs.  On the downside, he did strike out 8 times while drawing no walks, and he committed three errors in his six games.  There are a lot of reasons to like this highly regarded prospect (and we’ll get to that in a minute), but defense isn’t one of them.  In his four minor league seasons, he has a .909 fielding percentage at third base.  By comparison, Scott Rolen has an MLB career fielding percentage of .967.  Pretty brutal.  You can probably look for Juan to be shagging flies in left field while plying his trade at Triple A this season.  On the positive side . . . Every time he has gotten promoted, he has hit better than the level before.  It remains to be seen if he will ever learn how to hit big league left-handed pitching (because as of now, he can’t).  That being said, he has the makings on one who will rake.

***

In a recent post, I had expressed that there is indeed reason for optimism among the Reds’ faithful.  Sure, there are question marks.  Aaron Harang has been awful for the past two seasons.  And if there is anyone in the majors that could qualify for the Jekyll & Hyde award for pitching, it’s Bronson Arroyo (we’ll delve into that one in another post).  Homer Bailey had an encouraging September, but we’ll see if he can build on that and reward his organization for their exemplary patience.  The good news is that all three of these guys could be lights out in 2010.  And then there is this . . .

The chart below shows the Opening Day lineup for your 2009 Cincinnati Reds.  Next to it is a likely lineup (except for the 16 dudes vying for the left field job).  Check it out:

Feel better?  I know I do.

The way I see it . . . there are five guys returning who are healthy and a year older (good news for all except Ramon), three serious upgrades, and left field (which will very likely become an upgrade).

As for the seven prospective left fielders*: Chris Dickerson, Chris Heisey, Wladimir Balentien, Todd Frazier, (our boy) Juan Francisco, Laynce Nix, and Aaron Miles . . . who knows?

Jonny had a good year here and should come back.

GUFS colleague David Jacob covered “the 7″ in his post, and you can check out his take here if you missed it.  The one name missing that I would like to see is Jonny Gomes - he of the 20 homers in 281 at-bats last season.  Can’t hit a lick off righthanders, but we’ll take those 300 ABs and 15-20 knocks.  Come home, Jonny!  Sign the minor league deal and pack your packs for Goodyear.

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